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As life expectancy gains slow, we must target the ‘damaging effects of ageing’ – study
After nearly doubling during the 20th century, the rate of increase in life expectancy has slowed considerably in the last three decades, according to a new study.
Despite frequent breakthroughs in medicine and public health, life expectancy at birth in the world’s longest-living populations has increased only an average of six and a half years since 1990, analysis led by the University of Illinois Chicago has found.
That rate of improvement falls far short of some scientists’ expectations that life expectancy would increase at an accelerated pace in this century and that most people born today will live past 100 years.
The paper, “Implausibility of Radical Life Extension in Humans in the 21st Century,” offers new evidence that humans are approaching a biologically based limit to life.
The biggest boosts to longevity have already occurred through successful efforts to combat disease, the researchers believe. This leaves the damaging effects of aging as the main obstacle to further extension.
Lead author S. Jay Olshansky says: “Most people alive today at older ages are living on time that was manufactured by medicine. But these medical Band-Aids are producing fewer years of life even though they’re occurring at an accelerated pace, implying that the period of rapid increases in life expectancy is now documented to be over.”
That also means extending life expectancy even more by reducing disease could be harmful, if those additional years aren’t healthy years, Olshansky adds.
“We should now shift our focus to efforts that slow aging and extend healthspan,” he said.
Healthspan is a relatively new metric that measures the number of years a person is healthy, not just alive.
The analysis, conducted with researchers from the University of Hawaii, Harvard and UCLA, is the latest chapter in a three-decade debate over the potential limits of human longevity.
In 1990, Olshansky published a paper in Science that argued humans were approaching a ceiling for life expectancy of around 85 years of age and that the most significant gains had already been made. Others predicted that advances in medicine and public health would accelerate 20th-century trends upward into the 21st century.
Thirty-four years later, the evidence reported in the 2024 Nature Aging study supports the idea that life expectancy gains will continue to slow as more people become exposed to the detrimental and immutable effects of aging.
The study looked at data from the eight longest-living countries and Hong Kong, as well as the US — one of only a handful of countries that has seen a decrease in life expectancy in the period studied.
“Our result overturns the conventional wisdom that the natural longevity endowment for our species is somewhere on the horizon ahead of us — a life expectancy beyond where we are today,” Olshansky says.
“Instead, it’s behind us — somewhere in the 30- to 60-year range. We’ve now proven that modern medicine is yielding incrementally smaller improvements in longevity even though medical advances are occurring at breakneck speed.”
While more people may reach 100 years and beyond in this century, those cases will remain outliers that won’t move average life expectancy significantly higher, Olshansky says.
That conclusion pushes back against products and industries, such as insurance and wealth-management businesses, which increasingly make calculations based on assumptions that most people will live to be 100.
“This is profoundly bad advice because only a small percentage of the population will live that long in this century,” Olshansky says.
But the finding doesn’t rule out that medicine and science can produce further benefits, he said. There may be more immediate potential in improving quality of life at older ages instead of extending life, the authors argue. More investment should be made in geroscience — the biology of aging, which may hold the seeds of the next wave of health and life extension.
Olshansky says: “This is a glass ceiling, not a brick wall. There’s plenty of room for improvement: for reducing risk factors, working to eliminate disparities and encouraging people to adopt healthier lifestyles – all of which can enable people to live longer and healthier. We can push through this glass health and longevity ceiling with geroscience and efforts to slow the effects of aging.”
Gut-friendly foods such as kimchi and kombucha may carry hidden risks for heart health when eaten in excess, the British Heart Foundation (BHF) has warned.
The charity said foods marketed as prebiotic, probiotic or otherwise good for the gut can support the microbiome, but some may also be high in salt or sugar, which can raise the risk of cardiovascular disease.
Products highlighted by the British Heart Foundation included kimchi, kombucha, fruit yoghurts, smoothies and sauerkraut. It said there is no harm in including them as part of a healthy diet, but advised people to check labels for added salt and sugar and eat them in moderation.
Tracy Parker, the charity’s nutrition lead, said: “We encourage everyone to choose foods that can keep their gut microbiome healthy. The benefits are clear, and we are continuing to improve our understanding of how a gut-friendly diet may help our hearts.
“A lot of these products can contain high levels of salt or sugar though, so it is important to be aware of the potential drawbacks.
“By ensuring you check package labels for added salt and sugars, and eat each in moderation, you can make sure the risks do not outweigh the benefits for your heart health.”
Fermented foods such as kimchi and sauerkraut are rich in probiotics, the healthy bacteria produced during fermentation that can help support a diverse and healthy gut microbiome.
However, both are traditionally made using a lot of salt, which can raise blood pressure if eaten frequently or in large quantities. High blood pressure is known to increase the risk of heart attack and stroke.
Kombucha, a fermented tea, also contains probiotics and can be a healthier alternative to fizzy drinks, but many commercial and shop-bought versions contain added sugar.
Eating too much sugar can lead to weight gain, which can increase the risk of heart attack, stroke and other cardiovascular disease.
Fruit yoghurts can contain probiotic live bacteria cultures, but may also be high in sugar and have fewer live cultures than plain versions.
The charity said plain yoghurt with live and active cultures on the label can be a lower-sugar option, with whole fruit added at home for sweetness.
Smoothies made with whole fruits provide prebiotic fibre, which feeds beneficial gut bacteria and supports digestive health.
They can also provide vitamins and antioxidants, especially when made with a variety of plant-based ingredients.
But blending breaks down the structure of fruit, releasing free sugars that behave like added sugars in the body and can cause faster rises in blood sugar levels.
Regularly consuming too much sugar can lead to weight gain, which can increase the risk of developing type 2 diabetes, heart disease and kidney disease.
The charity said only one 150ml serving of any smoothie counts towards five-a-day, and suggested adding nuts or seeds for extra protein and fibre to help keep blood sugar levels more stable.
The BHF also noted that some shop-bought sauerkraut is pasteurised, which removes most of the live bacteria.
It advised checking the label, eating small portions and choosing unpasteurised products for those seeking the probiotic benefits.
The charity said beneficial gut bacteria produce short-chain fatty acids during digestion, which are linked to reduced inflammation, better metabolism and better heart and circulatory health.
These good bacteria also help digest polyphenols, natural plant chemicals thought to have antioxidant properties and which may help lower blood pressure.
By contrast, harmful gut bacteria, which thrive on diets high in fat and red meat, produce chemicals that can cause problems in the heart and blood vessels by increasing inflammation and altering how cholesterol is processed in the body.
Beneficial bacteria thrive on varied diets high in prebiotics, non-digestible fibres found in foods such as wholegrains, oats, beans, lentils, bananas and onions.
People with diabetes may have undiagnosed heart failure that could be detected by a simple screening blood test, research suggests.
The TARTAN-HF trial found that one in four patients with diabetes who had at least one other risk factor for heart failure had undiagnosed heart failure detected through screening with a blood test and ultrasound scanning of the heart.
Experts said the findings show the extent of unrecognised heart failure in people with diabetes, and how the condition can be detected using a widely available blood test called NT-proBNP, which measures how much strain the heart is under.
They suggest a heart failure screening programme for diabetics could improve diagnosis rates, lead to earlier treatment and potentially reduce the risk of hospitalisation and death.
The study, involving 700 patients, was led by the University of Glasgow in collaboration with AstraZeneca, Roche Diagnostics, Us2.ai, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde and NHS Lanarkshire.
Dr Kieran Docherty, clinical senior lecturer at the University of Glasgow’s School of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, said: “Our results from the landmark TARTAN-HF trial identified heart failure in a large proportion of people living with diabetes, emphasising the need for a heart failure screening strategy in this group of patients.
“We know that many of the symptoms and signs of heart failure are non-specific, and may go unrecognised as potentially being due to heart failure for a long time.
“The strategy used in our trial is simple and easy to implement in clinical practice, and will aid in the early identification of heart failure in people with diabetes, and facilitate the initiation of medications that we know improve outcomes in patients with heart failure.”
The study, which began more than three years ago, involved more than 700 people with diabetes from the two health board areas who had at least one other risk factor for heart failure.
They were randomly assigned either to receive heart failure screening or to continue with their usual care.
Researchers found screening uncovered a large number of previously unrecognised cases of heart failure. Around one in four, or 24.9 per cent, of those screened were found to have the condition within six months, compared with 1 per cent in the group continuing their usual care.
The study, involving patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes, found almost all of the participants found to have heart failure had preserved ejection fraction, which can be difficult to detect without dedicated testing.
The findings of the TARTAN-HF trial were presented at the American College of Cardiology conference taking place from 28 to 30 March in New Orleans in the US.
Dr Edward Piper, medical director at AstraZeneca UK, said: “Delayed diagnosis and treatment of heart failure in people with type 2 diabetes contributes to poor long-term outcomes. TARTAN-HF demonstrates that targeted, risk-based screening can identify previously undiagnosed heart failure in approximately one in four high-risk patients with diabetes, enabling earlier intervention with guideline-directed therapy.”
Dr Christian Simon, head of global medical affairs at Roche Diagnostics, said: “We are proud to have supported the landmark TARTAN-HF trial. These findings demonstrate the transformative power of early, accessible diagnostics like the NT-proBNP blood test.
“By identifying unrecognised heart failure in people with diabetes, we enable clinicians to initiate appropriate treatments sooner, ultimately improving patient outcomes and lives.”
The UK has launched a £6.3m men’s health fund to back local projects aimed at helping men and boys live longer, healthier lives.
The Men’s Health Community Fund is a partnership between the Department of Health and Social Care, Movember and People’s Health Trust.
The government is contributing £3m, while the two charities are more than doubling that to take the total to £6.3m.
Grants will support community projects reaching underserved men and boys aged 16 and over, particularly in the most disadvantaged areas and at key points in their lives such as becoming a father, losing a job or retiring.
Projects could include support for new fathers, activities for men facing loneliness and social isolation, services to help young men engage with the health system, and support for men in work, out of work and moving into retirement.
The programme will bring together voluntary, community and social enterprise organisations to test new ways of reaching men who are least likely to use traditional health services.
An evaluation funded through the National Institute for Health and Care Research will assess what works and help inform future policy and delivery.
Health and social care secretary Wes Streeting said: “Too many men across the country are living shorter, less healthy lives, particularly those in our most disadvantaged communities.
“This new partnership will help men get the support they need in the places they feel most comfortable, their communities, among people they trust.
“By working with expert charities and local organisations, we can reach the men who are too often missed by traditional services and help them take better care of their mental and physical health.”
“It is a key step in delivering our first ever Men’s Health Strategy and driving forward our ambition to halve the gap in healthy life expectancy between the richest and poorest areas.”
The Men’s Health Strategy sets out plans to tackle the physical and mental health challenges men and boys face.
Men can be less likely to seek help and more likely to suffer in silence, while higher rates of smoking, drinking, gambling and drug use are damaging men’s health and affecting families, workplaces and communities.
The government is also investing £3.6m over the next three years in suicide prevention projects for middle-aged men in local communities across areas of England where men are most at risk, many of which are also among the most deprived. Suicide is one of the biggest killers of men under 50, and three-quarters of all suicides are men.
The projects will aim to break down barriers middle-aged men face in seeking support, including stigma around asking for help and a lack of awareness of what is available and how to access it.
They will be co-designed with experts and men with lived experience of mental health crises and suicidal thoughts.
Gut-friendly foods may damage heart, charity warns
Diabetes patients face increased risk of undiagnosed heart failure
UK government announces £6.3m fund to boost men’s health
Brain health collaboratory launches in Gulf South
